One of the Simulation questions bugs me. It's the whole subjective thing of whomever creates the question can decide what the right answer is.
You post a scenario where you list BAC, and explain the project is well behind and over budget.
Your team performs a Bottom Up Estimate, and shows X value
The Sponsor asks you to perform ETC based on budgeted rate and again based on CPI, and come up with Y and Z values. X is Highest, Z is middle, and Y is lowest.
What do you show the Sponsor?
Now I know darned good and well that a BUE is the MOST Accurate, and that is the basis of your answer, but the Sponsor has asked you to perform the ETCs. BTW the BUE estimate completes the project at 150% of original budget. With you calculating the ETC based on CPI, are you not estimating based on current and past performance, that should flow accurately into the future? If you ran a TCPI it would show an aggressive rate of work to stick with the budget. The other option for an answer was only blowing up the BAC by a mere 10% using ETC on CPI.
Anyway, I know what the answer is, but this is what really annoys me about this whole process.
Sign me discouraged.
