TOPIC: Free PMP® Exam Sample Question of the Week!

Ada, the project manager, is meeting with a customer for initial discussions about a software implementation project. At the end of the meeting, the customer asks Ada for a general estimate of the project duration. Based on experience with three similar projects with roughly the same scope, Ada estimates an 8-10 month implementation time frame. What estimation technique is Ada basing her duration projection on?

A. Expert judgment
B. Three-point estimating
C. Analogous estimating
D. Bottom-up estimating

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HINT: Identify the estimating technique that compares a project to a previous, similar project.

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Answer and Explanation
The correct answer is C.

Ada is using historical duration information from comparable projects to estimate the duration of a future project. This gross value estimating approach is called analogous estimating and is frequently used to provide a ballpark figure when there is a limited amount of detailed information available about the project.

A. Expert judgment
Incorrect. In a sense, Ada is using expert judgment due to her experience, but because she is basing her duration estimate on three similar projects, analogous estimating is a better answer choice.

B. Three-point estimating
Incorrect. Three-point estimating would require Ada to collect optimistic, pessimistic and most likely duration estimates to calculate a projected time frame for the work. Since Ada was required to provide a 'general' estimate on the spot, analogous estimating is a better technique since she is familiar with the time it took to complete similar projects with similar scope.

C. Analogous estimating
Correct. Ada is using analogous estimating, which is a common technique used to provide a rough estimate on a future project based on parameters from a previous, similar project. In this scenario, duration from the three previous projects was used as the basis for estimating the duration of this project.

D. Bottom-up estimating
Incorrect. Bottom-up estimating would be the most thorough technique but would take the longest time. Also, this method is typically used when estimates cannot be made with a high degree of confidence. Since Ada has historical information available, analogous estimating would satisfy the customer's request for a 'general' estimate.

Reference: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) – Sixth Edition, Project Management Institute Inc., 2017, Page(s) 200

Analogous Estimating